The Australian economy is again at the crossroads. Having bounced back over the past year, interest rates are now back to neutral and the fiscal stimulus is being wound back, but questions are re-emerging about overseas economies. There is still uncertainty about the sustainability of growth.

However, healthy fundamentals for individual markets and industries will assert themselves over 2011. These fundamentals will generate opportunities over time for which we can prepare now.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BRIEFING

As business investment begins to firm, how quickly will activity regain momentum? Given the economy is starting with relatively little excess capacity, how long can growth be sustained without exciting inflation? What will drive growth in 2011?

• How strong the housing recovery? Will affordability issues undermine the cycle?
• What is the outlook for inflation? How long before we run into capacity and labour constraints? How high interest rates?
• Global economy – will growth be carrying sufficient momentum when the fiscal impetus starts to unwind?
• What impact on commodity prices, domestic investment and exports? Will the A$ stay high?
• Will we see a two-speed recovery? Which industries will prosper?
• Construction cycles – will cycles continue to be staggered?
• Directions and Drivers. Winners and Losers. Prospects by sector and state.

This session is accredited by the Financial Planning Association of Australia for 3 points of Continuing Professional Development Generic Knowledge – The Economic Environment - Accreditation #4080

Speakers: 

Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist

Richard Robinson - Senior Economist

 

LUNCHEON

The Policies and Political Impact of the Election Outcome 

With the Federal Election now expected to deliver a hung Parliament, it is likely that the Independents and Greens House of Representative members will decide whether Labor or the Coalition run a minority Government. Given that this situation hasn’t occurred in the House of Representatives since 1940, we are set for a fascinating political environment that has huge ramifications for major policy issues such as emissions trading, the mining tax, national broadband and population growth. While we may or may not know which party will form Government by the time of the Business Forecasting Conferences, Dr Peter van Onselen will address the political realities of this new balance of power in Canberra, its implications for policy and its impact on business and the economy.

Guest Speaker: Peter van Onselen, Associate Professor of Politics & Government, Edith Cowan University, contributing editor at The Australian and host of The Contrarians and Saturday Agenda on Sky News

 

BUILDING INDUSTRY PROSPECTS BRIEFING

Residential building is recovering due to fiscal and monetary policy support, but property markets have cooled recently. Stimulus funding for education building has offset the deep decline in the value of commercial and industrial projects. Can the recoveries in residential and non-residential building continue as government support fades?

• We think that population growth is slowing, as net overseas migration falls. What will be the direct and indirect effects of weaker population growth on building and property markets?
• When will FHB demand recover, and will recent state government policy measures to encourage dwelling construction be effective?
• Renovation spending recovered rapidly over the course of 2009/10.
• Will the recent strong growth in property prices encourage more projects via refinancing in 2011?
• Has the improvement in economic conditions been sufficient to encourage a recovery in commercial and industrial building, and which states might lead the way?
• Forecasts of building activity by sector and state to December 2011.
• An overview of property market prospects for the residential, commercial, retail and industrial sectors.

 

Speakers:  

Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist

Robert Mellor - Managing Director & Director Building 

Jason Anderson - Senior Project Manager